1. 88% of winners had a place strike rate greater than 40%.
2. 69% of winners had a place strike rate greater than 50%.
3. 72% of winners were priced at $11 or under in Friday pre-race markets.
4. 72% of winners were in the top five average prizemoney.
5. 58% of winners finished first or second at their last start.
6. 83% of winners had finished in the first five last start.
7. 75% of winners had not risen more than 2kg. from last start.
8. The first three favourites win approximately 70% of the time.
- First Favourite wins approximately 35% of the time
- Second Favourite wins approximately 20% of the time.
- Third Favourite wins approximately 13.5% of the time.
Allocate a maximum amount of points for each form item eg
Form 1-30 points
Fitness 1-20
Class 1-20
Distance 1-20
Barrier 1-10
Jockey 1-10
Speed 1-20
Horse. Points. Total
Whity 25. 18. 20. 20. 8. 9. 15 = 95
Browny 20. 20. 10. 15. 10. 4. 10 = 89
Greeny 10. 10. 10. 18. 6. 5. 5. = 64
Diddly 5. 5. 15. 10. 8. 6. 12. = 61
Total. = 309
Whity 309 divided by 95 =3.2
Browney 309 divided by 89 =3.4
Greeny 309 divided by 64 = 4.8
Diddly 309 divided by 61 = 5
Whity $3.20
Browney $3.40
Greeny $4.80
Diddly $5.00
All this is only an example but it might be of some help to you and you can make one up all of your own with the items you class as important and allocate points you you might have to adjust as you go along good luck.:-))
Rancho pretty much nailed it in my opinion, one thing you might want to do when starting is once you have your ratings frame the market to about 90% or just under and then look for overs, it gives you abit more room for error. You will prob have less bets but hopefully they are good ones!
The info above is all very good information and most of the contributors I would rate as very astute punters. If you are creating your own ratings/points based system from scratch then it will be an evolutionary project for some time. If at first it is not working well then make small changes to see if the ratings are closer to the mark. I don’t suggest making major changes at any one time because then you wont know which changes were more effective than others.
Any system you create is only a tool for identifying the best possible chances in any given race. You then should reassess the race in detail from the form to make your final selection(s). I suggest that you initially rate the better quality races where you can find exposed form. Use the Punters.com form guide to help you with this info.
You need to decide if the ratings should be weighted for each criteria or not. The following are my top criteria when rating a horse’s chance in a race:
1. Fitness: no horse can win if it is not fit. Is the horse resuming? if so what are its 1st and 2nd up stats. 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th starts are usually peaking the fitness of a horse. Anything over this and the horse may be declining in fitness.
2. Current Form: If a horse is performing well it means that it is fit, healthy and happy.
3. Class: There are a number of ways to determine class. You can look at the Ave. Prize Money the horse has earned (but make sure it is current…ie the horse is still in the prize money currently and not from the distant past results) or you can assess the form of the horse to see how it has performed in this class of race. Is it on the way up, coming down in class or simply outclassed.
4. Recent Runs: Look at a detailed form guide or watch replays and see how the horse finished off the race. Did it hit the line strongly? Did it weaken in the straight? Was it swamped on the line (maybe the race was too long)? How far did it win/lose by? This info will also help you with assessing the fitness.
5. Position in Running: Can the horse easily/comfortably settle in to its natural running position?
There are of course many more that you can add to this and I’m sure you will as time goes by. A further suggestion is keep to dry tracks initially only assess races of between 1200M to 1800M. A great piece of advice given to me many years ago that has never failed me is ‘horses usually run true to form’. GL mate. I look forward to seeing many winners posted.
The one thing all these rating books tell you is that RATINGS ARE NOT THE BE ALL AND END ALL method of selection. They all suggest that YOU consider the top 4 or 5 more closely and that you should only use ratings to find the best few chances then consider ONLY their form and punt accordingly.
I should have mentioned the basic equation for simple class weight rating of a performance in a race is: Class of race+weight above limit weight+barrier disadvantage- beaten margin.
Example using hypothetical factors:
class of race : 40
weight carried 58kg on limit 54kg
barrier disadvantage: 0.5
beaten 2 lengths. (using universal acceptance: 1 length = 1.5 kg)
this would give us 40+4 = 44 (that is 58kg-54kg)
44+0.5 =44.5 (0.5 being horses barrier disadvantage
44.5-3 =41.5 (-3 being equal to 2 lengths)
This tells us the horse has returned 41.5 as his rating last start.
This is the most basic of ratings. I have about 2 points between each class Eg. Mdn=40, bm 64=42 ect.